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By William W. Hsieh

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5 −50 lag Figure 16: The first eight SSA eigenvectors as a function of time lag. The top panel shows mode 1 (solid curve) and mode 2 (dashed curve); the second panel from top shows mode 3 (solid) and mode 4 (dashed); the third panel from top shows mode 5 (solid) and mode 6 (dashed); and the bottom panel shows mode 7 (solid) and mode 8 (dashed). 36 PC1, PC2 5 0 −5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 200 300 400 500 600 PC3, PC4 4 2 0 −2 −4 0 4 θ 2 0 −2 −4 0 time Figure 17: The PC time series of SSA mode 1 (solid curve) and mode 2 (dashed curve) (top panel), mode 3 (solid) and mode 4 (dashed) (middle panel); and θ, the nonlinear PC from NLSSA mode 1 (bottom panel).

Solid contours indicate positive anomalies and dashed contours, negative anomalies, with the zero contour indicated by the thick solid curve. In a separate panel beneath each contour plot, the PC of each SSA mode is also plotted as a time series, (where each tick mark on the abscissa indicates the start of a year). The time of the PC is synchronized to the lag time of 0 month in the space-time eigenvector. 39 100 x3 50 0 −50 −100 100 50 100 x2 0 50 0 −50 −50 −100 −100 x1 Figure 20: The NLSSA mode 1 for the tropical Pacific SLPA.

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